The Evolution of Malware: Trends and Future Outlook

The sophisticated state of malware in 2024 can be intimidating. But smart thinking, caution, and technology can defeat it. To understand what malware is capable of today, it’s worth exploring the history of this kind of cybersecurity vulnerability. Understanding the evolution of malware will help you know how to protect yourself from whatever comes next.

What Is Malware? 

The “mal” in malware stands for “malicious.” It includes any software that is developed to steal data, damage computer systems, or even destroy devices. Viruses, worms, spyware, ransomware, and adware are all types of malware.

If malware designers want to be effective, they have to evolve quickly.  There are two main ways that malware changes over time: 

1. Cybercriminals improve the malware’s code and make it more effective at damaging your devices 
2. The method of delivery of the malware becomes more sophisticated and tricks more people into downloading it 

Most Common Types of Malware

Here are the 6 most common types of malware to watch out for. 

Ransomware:  In the aftermath of a ransomware attack, the malware encrypts files and systems until the victim pays a ransom. This isn’t a particularly common attack compared to other malware types, but it’s often one of the most damaging. Unfortunately, this is an effective attack that often targets corporate victims, school systems, government entities, and other organizations. All the attacker needs is for one person to accidentally download the ransomware. Then they can hold the entire organization hostage until the organization pays them. 

Trojan Horse: This is a kind of malicious software that disguises itself as something useful or legitimate. Once installed, this malware can take actions like installing backdoors, stealing data, or spreading malware to other systems. Scammers like Trojan Horses for their ability to trick everyday consumers who think they are downloading something useful. 

Spyware: When spyware gets installed onto a device, it secretly monitors all of the activity on that device. It can steal your login credentials, your financial account information, and any other sensitive data it can get. Spyware will also monitor and record your webcam usage and browsing history. Through keylogging, it can make a record of everything you do online or offline with that device. 

Adware: To make financial gains at your expense, cybercriminals design adware attacks that force unwanted advertisements onto your screen. This can include pop-up ads, web browser redirects, and more. Adware is annoying, and it can slow down your device to the point that it is nearly unusable. 

Botnets: Sometimes, malware will allow a hacker to take control of an infected system. Then they can join it together with a network of other compromised devices. This is called a botnet. Botnets can be used to spread more malware or launch coordinated attacks against unsuspecting users. 

Rootkits: A rootkit gives an attacker root access or administrator access to a system. It also actively hides their presence from security software–and of course the user, too. This makes rootkit malware difficult to detect and even harder to remove.

Where Did Malware Come From? 

IBM produced a timeline of the development of malware, from the earliest foundations of this kind of malicious software in 1966 to the present day. 

• 1966: Renowned mathematician John von Neumann published theories on self-replicating programs which provided the theoretical basis for computer viruses.

• 1971: Programmers created the Creeper worm, the first computer program that moves from one system to another and copies itself. There was no malicious intent in the development of the Creeper worm, and it was not a form of malware. But it laid a foundation for later attacks. 

• 1982: A 15-year-old named Rich Skrenta built the Elk Cloner virus as a prank to alter programs on Apple II computers–the first virus that affected Apple devices. Elk Cloner spread by being transferred from an infected floppy disk onto a computer. It would then attach itself to the computer’s memory and infect any disk inserted into that computer. 

• 1986: Amjad and Basit Farooq Alvi, a pair of brothers in Pakistan, created the Brain boot sector virus for IBM PCs, initially to prevent software piracy but which spreads widely globally. It was the first virus to affect IBM machines. 

• 1988: An MIT student, Robert Morris, created the Morris Worm, which proved to be highly effective at spreading between internet-connected systems. Only about 60,000 computers were connected to the internet then, and the Morris Worm infected 10% of them! This caused significant financial damage and led to Morris being the first person in the US to be charged with cyber fraud. 

• 1999: The Melissa worm was the fastest spreading malware of its time, rapidly infiltrating systems through Microsoft Outlook and Exchange resulting in slowdowns at hundreds of organizations. It infected about a million email accounts and 100,000 workplace computers. 

• 2000: A 24-year-old in the Philippines named Onel de Guzman built the ILOVEYOU virus that utilized social engineering through email phishing to steal passwords and delete files causing major damages. He wanted to steal passwords to get free internet access, which he couldn’t afford because of the high price of dial-up internet. This was the first intentional malware attack that tricked people into downloading malicious viruses because of their curiosity. 

• 2004: The Mydoom worm set records for utilizing hijacked computers to rapidly spread itself through email and launch DDoS attacks with huge losses. At one point, the Mydoom work infected 25% of emails sent around the world. Its creators have never been identified.  

• 2007: The Zeus Trojan Horse virus preyed on victims through phishing and drive-by downloads to deliver an array of dangerous malware. This certainly demonstrated the risks of slyly altering code. When somone leaked its source code and the accompanying instructional manual in 2011, cybercriminals used the information to make their own attacks better–and cybersecurity professionals used the documents to combat similar attacks. 

• 2013: CryptoLocker ransomware employed stolen botnets to systematically and powerfully encrypt user files for bitcoin ransom that was only worth about $1500 total. CrytoLocker ransomware is still active today. 

• 2014: To this day, the stealthy, ever-evolving Emotet trojan remains a delivery mechanism for other malware through basic phishing scams challenging security specialists. The problem for cybersecurity professionals is that the Emotet virus doesn’t just copy itself; it makes a slightly different version of itself. This means that it is difficult to detect and even harder to get rid of. 

• 2016: The Mirai botnet, created by a college student named Paras Jha, took over vast numbers of poorly secured Internet of Things (IoT) devices into a weaponized network. This was more powerful than the creator originally intended it to be, and it temporarily paralyzed all of the major DNS servers on America’s eastern seaboard. The entire region was without internet access for a day. 

• 2017: Nation-state hackers appropriated and modified ransomware like Petya and WannaCry for cyber warfare throughout the year. Exploits like EternalBlue, a Microsoft Windows vulnerability, enabled this attack. Experts believe these attacks were the work of Russian intelligence agencies, and that they targeted Ukraine. 

• 2019: Ransomware-as-a-Service emerged, which allows almost anyone to hire a cyberattacker to conduct a ransomware attack, especially on high-value targets. RaaS is available on the dark web to anyone who wants to launch an attack but doesn’t have the technical skills to do so on their own. 

• 2021: A ransomware gang held the Colonial Pipeline and 45% of the U.S. East Coast’s fuel supply hostage prompting a state of emergency declared by President Biden. 

• 2022: Cybercriminals crippled Costa Rica’s government ministries and healthcare system one after another, forcing the nation to declare an unprecedented national emergency.

What Will Malware Look Like Next? 

That is the question that cybersecurity professionals want to be able to answer with confidence! The more that they can predict about the next attacks, the better they can prevent significant damage from cyber criminals. 

Hackers, cyber attackers, and other bad actors are always looking for new ways to exploit vulnerabilities and trick people into downloading dangerous software. 

Here are some of what we expect to see in 2024 and beyond. 

1. Cybercriminals will use AI to create more effective malware. 
2. They will use AI to create smarter and personalized phishing techniques to deliver malware to individual targets.
3. Ransomware will target high-value victims for the biggest payoff.
4. Cybercriminals will focus ransomware attacks on large, vulnerable critical infrastructure organizations that can’t afford downtime–and are therefore faster to pay the ransom.
5. Two-Factor Authentication (2FA) will help protect you from malware attacks.
6. Attackers will take advantage of unsecured smart home devices, including doorbells, refrigerators, ovens, microwaves, garage door openers, speakers, TVs, appliances, HVAC units, etc. 
7. Criminals will disstribute open-source malware code on the dark web to make it easier for attackers to learn how to launch their attacks. 

Protect Yourself from the Next Stages of Malware 

The evolution of malware shows no signs of slowing down. As technology continues to advance, so too will the tactics and capabilities of cybercriminals seeking to exploit it. While AI and sophisticated malware variants pose worrying threats, proactive prevention through multifactor authentication, better IoT device security, and vigilance around phishing attempts can help users and organizations avoid becoming the next victims.